THE WAUGH ZONE

By Paul Waugh. 16 October 2019.

Talk to the hand?

Like them or loathe them, political summits often force world leaders to make decisions, and compromises, beyond their usual comfort zone. The terminology itself, with officials described as ‘sherpas’ doing most of the heavy lifting before their bosses reach the pinnacle of agreement, is well worn.

Journalist that he is, Boris Johnson finds it hard to resist an extended metaphor and today he told a meeting of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee that he was close to scaling the Mount Everest of a Brexit deal. "We are at the [Edmund] Hillary Step. The summit is not far. But at the moment there is still cloud around the summit.”

Johnson may have been aware that the Hillary Step was a near-vertical rock face where many climbers have died. He was probably less aware that it was destroyed by an earthquake four years ago.

But it was another metaphor he deployed in the ‘22 (and to the Cabinet earlier) that was actually perhaps more telling. The PM compared his Brexit deal journey in Brussels to crawling through a sewage tunnel, as featured in the classic prison movie The Shawshank Redemption. Escaping from the EU would essentially involve crawling through effluent.

The analogy is apt, not least as someone told me recently that Johnson sees key aide Dominic Cummings as ‘the plumber’ to whom he subcontracts ‘the dirty business’ of unblocking the Brexit pipe. Fittingly, Cummings has told colleagues he plans to stay No.10 only as long as it takes “to get this shit-show sorted”.

As sherpas on both sides looks set to work into Thursday, the day of the summit itself, the question is who will gag on the unpalatable compromises they are being asked to swallow.

And what is focusing minds is the ‘Hilary’s Step’ of the Benn Act. The act is not a blunt instrument. It is surgically precise. It’s worth saying again that the legislation does not allow for a half-way house of an ‘in principle’ agreement at the EU summit. It envisages either no-deal or a situation where the UK “has concluded an agreement with the European Union” - ie a full legal text. It very deliberately allows for nothing in between.

That’s why some in government are mooting a possible attempt on Saturday to amend the Benn Act to change its October 19 date to one that allows for another emergency EU summit later this month. But that’s not going to fly with the 21 Tory rebels, I’m told.

“It would require people who’ve put their careers on the line and lost the whip to take a huge leap of faith. It would also require levels of trust between parliament and No.10 that sadly no longer exist,” a rebel source tells me. Once a text is agreed, the act allows parliament to terminate the extension early, they add.

The real problem with the Benn Act deadline, however, is that it the DUP don’t do deadlines. The unionist party famously were not cowed by Tony Blair’s tactics when it came to signing the Good Friday Agreement (ironically an agreement on which the DUP now relies for its consent mechanism on Brexit). And as they again hold talks with No.10, they don’t look like they’ll be pushed around by anyone.

The DUP know they are putting at risk their moment of maximum leverage. A Brexit deal may never get better than the one on offer now. If Johnson is forced to opt for a general election, they could end up with a Jeremy Corbyn government. If Johnson wins a big majority, it would be difficult to abandon the DUP without losing some Tory Brexiteers, but their leverage would be weaker. The DUP really don’t want a no-deal outcome either.

Yet for all that, they will dig in if they have to. If there is an extension, then London, Dublin and Brussels will still have to deal with Belfast. Any compromises too far and Johnson will have to ‘talk to the hand’ of Ulster (a red hand at that). The PM famously dubbed the Benn Act ‘the surrender act’. But nobody outdoes the DUP when it comes to ‘no surrender’. And they don’t give two hoots if others describe them as the blockage in the pipe.

Quote Of The Day

“No deal tonight"

A No.10 source on the chances of a Brexit breakthrough on the eve of the EU summit.

Wednesday Cheat Sheet

Labour’s Jenny Chapman told Andrew Neil that the party is ready to back an amendment that would attach a second referendum to a Brexit deal the PM brought before parliament. “I would expect us to support that, yes.”

Donald Trump has said Boris Johnson asked for a grieving British family to meet the suspect in their son’s death at the White House - an offer they refused as it felt like an “ambush”.

Jeremy Corbyn has angrily hit out at criticism of changes to his Commons office, saying he is “fed up” of briefing against his plans to prepare for an election. Party chair Ian Lavery was in the firing line at shadow cabinet.

Sir Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador in Brussels, told MPs ministers had once told him “You don’t understand, we’re going to have a trade deal in place with the European Union on the day after exit”. “And I said ‘with the greatest of respect, we’re not.’ And I think I’m proven right.”

A ‘New IRA’ army council spokesman told Channel4 News that “any [border] infrastructure would be a legitimate target for attack and armed actions against those infrastructures and against the people who are manning them”.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said he was considering whether to talk Northern Rail into public hands given its poor performance, with trains regularly arriving late or not at all.

The House of Commons has appointed a new Serjeant at Arms. Nigerian-born Ugbana Oyet, currently an electrical engineer in Parliament, will take over the role later this month.

What I'm Reading

100 Years Ago, The British Parliament Partitioned Ireland - Irish Times

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